The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
China is slowing down, Europe is barely afloat and the US is meeting a larger chunk of its own demand.
State-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) plans a significant capital expenditure of 25,000 crore for the financial year 2026-27, primarily for ongoing expansion projects. The company also stated that the recent 4-per-litre price hike in petrol and diesel has provided some financial relief amidst volatile crude oil prices and mounting losses.
India significantly increased its crude oil imports from Russia and the United Arab Emirates in June, securing supplies as the Strait of Hormuz began to reopen, with Russian barrels remaining attractive due to discounts and UAE supplies offsetting earlier uncertainties.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant slump in early trade, mirroring a sharp decline in global equities and a fresh spike in crude oil prices, exacerbated by simmering tensions in West Asia and a global unwinding of the AI-led rally. Track how sensex, Nifty fared on June 8.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
One of the reasons is that the retail prices are not bench-marked to crude but their respective international benchmark prices.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 3.88 per cent in March, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude petroleum, natural gas, and manufactured items amidst the West Asia crisis.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
An oil tanker carrying Saudi crude safely reached Mumbai after crossing the war-hit Strait of Hormuz with its tracking system briefly switched off.
Oil firms' borrowings could fall by up to Rs 15,000 cr, govt's subsidy bill by 12% .
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed sharply higher, with the Sensex climbing 1,695.40 points and the Nifty surging nearly 2 per cent, driven by a global market rally and a decline in crude oil prices following US President Donald Trump's declaration that his country has ended the war with Iran.
The Indian rupee rebounded 50 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.36 against the US dollar, driven by retreating crude oil prices, signs of easing geopolitical friction, and likely central bank intervention.
Despite the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) and the government's recent initiatives to attract foreign capital, which are expected to alleviate pressure on long-duration bonds, most debt fund managers are maintaining a cautious stance, favouring shorter-duration papers due to global uncertainties and potential future rate hikes.
Kerala is facing increased inflationary pressure due to recent hikes in petrol and diesel prices, according to Chief Minister V D Satheesan. The state's economy is also impacted by the decline in remittances from the Gulf and higher oil prices.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty recovered early losses to trade higher, supported by encouraging developments on the geopolitical front, specifically the US-Iran peace deal, and easing crude oil prices.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw a rebound in early trade, driven by a rally in global markets and easing Brent crude oil prices, with hopes of US-Iran peace negotiations also contributing to investor optimism. Track Sensex, Nifty on May 22
Analysts are revising down India Inc's financial year 2026-27 (FY27) earnings growth forecasts, citing persistently high crude oil prices above $100 a barrel due to the West Asia conflict, which is expected to dent corporate financial performance in the coming quarters.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded in early trade, driven by strong buying in blue-chip stocks and positive cues from Asian markets, following a significant selloff in the previous session.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
Nayara Energy, a private fuel retailer in India, has increased petrol and diesel prices following a surge in global oil prices due to Middle East tensions. This move contrasts with state-owned retailers who continue to freeze prices.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Monday launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the latest fuel hike, saying mehangai manav has struck again and he has just one job of making promises during elections and attacking people's pockets at other times.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade, driven by reports of a second round of talks between the US and Iran, which are fostering hopes for a resolution to the West Asia conflict, coupled with Brent crude oil prices trading below the USD 100 per barrel mark.
Air India group announces fuel surcharges on domestic and international flights due to rising Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices, following the government's decision to cap domestic ATF price hikes.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, snapped a three-day rally, tumbling nearly 1 per cent due to heavy selling in IT stocks, a jump in crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and fears of prolonged instability in West Asia.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, recorded their fourth consecutive day of declines, driven by selling in FMCG, financial, and auto sectors. The downturn is attributed to fresh tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran 60-day ceasefire, and elevated crude oil prices.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed marginally higher, breaking a four-day losing streak, despite elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The market saw a temporary pause in panic selling, though cautious sentiment persists.
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the latest quarterly earnings reports from major corporates, with foreign investor activity also playing a crucial role.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded in early trade, tracking a recovery in global equity markets and an easing of hostilities between Israel and Iran, after a sharp fall in the previous session.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 16.77 lakh crore over four trading sessions, as the markets faced deep losses driven by elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, persistent foreign fund outflows, and a record-low rupee.
