Indian stock markets tumbled sharply with the Sensex falling 800 points and nearly 4 lakh crore wiped out in a single session. Here are the 6 key factors, including rupee weakness and global cues, behind the crash.
Rupee slumped 69 paise to an all-time low of 92.18 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as a sharp spike in crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict weighed on investor sentiment.
The Indian rupee depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a new all-time low due to rising oil prices, a strong dollar, and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Domestic equity market declines and foreign investment outflows further contributed to the rupee's weakness.
Donald Trump has warned Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face military action, escalating tensions amid regional conflict and impacting global oil supplies.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
Calling such reports baseless, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there was no such move under consideration.
Mcap of top 6 most valued firms drops nearly Rs 65k cr; Airtel biggest laggard
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
The government has raised the windfall profit tax levied on domestically produced crude oil as well as on the export of diesel and ATF, in line with firming international oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been increased to Rs 2,100 per tonne from Rs 1,700 per tonne, the order dated January 2, said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuel like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
Foreign investors have withdrawn a record Rs 1.14 lakh crore from Indian equities in March, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening rupee, and concerns about crude oil prices.
A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
A senior government official asserts India's independence in purchasing Russian oil, stating that US sanctions waivers merely remove friction but do not dictate India's energy policy. The official highlights India's commitment to energy security and affordability for its citizens.
The government has reduced the windfall profit tax levied on domestically-produced crude oil as well as on the export of diesel and ATF, in line with softening international oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been cut to Rs 1,900 per tonne from Rs 2,100 per tonne, the order dated January 16, said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuel like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to sustained foreign fund outflows and uncertainties in West Asia, although lower crude oil prices and a positive opening in domestic equity markets limited the losses.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
The Indian commodity market has experienced significant growth over the past decade, allowing Indian traders to capitalise on price fluctuations in commodities such as gold, crude oil, and natural gas. Earlier, commodity trading required substantial capital as these contracts were only available in bulk quantities. But to make the commodity market more accessible, exchanges such as the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) have launched smaller and more flexible commodities contracts, including mini and micro contracts. These changes in the commodity lot size have changed the way small traders trade in commodity markets.
Bessent indicated that the U.S. is evaluating the status of Iranian oil as the current campaign progresses.
The public has benefited from this decline in crude oil, which has translated into lower prices of petrol and diesel.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
Higher crude oil prices also translate into better corporate earnings for India's top companies
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The basket of crude oil that India buys has hit a decade high of $121 per barrel, but retail selling prices of petrol and diesel continue to remain frozen. The Indian basket on June 9 touched $121.28, matching levels seen in February/March 2012, according to data available from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). As per the PPAC, the Indian basket of crude oil averaged $111.86 per barrel between February 25 and March 29 - the immediate period after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent oil on fire.
India's aviation sector is facing fresh turbulence, with rising fuel costs, the Ministry of Civil Aviation's free-seat directive, and geopolitical disruptions in West Asia clouding near-term earnings visibility.
Gold prices experienced a significant drop in futures trading due to global selloff, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar. Analysts predict a continued downward trend amid geopolitical tensions and potential rate hikes.
Production growth in India's eight core infrastructure sectors slowed to a three-month low of 2.3 per cent in February, impacted by contractions in crude oil, natural gas, and refinery products output.
Come December, India may have to re-evaluate purchases of Russian oil if a price cap on crude oil proposed by the US and the European Union (EU) comes into effect. That impacts nearly a quarter of India's oil purchases that come at a discount, helping limit marketing losses for India's state refiners and enabling New Delhi to manage inflation by freezing pump prices of motor fuels. In September, India imported 1 million barrels a day or 24 per cent of its overall imports from Russia, which became the biggest supplier of oil to India.
Indian equity investors experienced a significant loss of 16.32 lakh crore due to a two-day stock market decline fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
The rupee appreciated 53 paise to close at 89.67 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices. Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities and Brent crude oil prices hovering near $59 per barrel supported the domestic unit at lower levels.
The contraction in total reserves was driven by a fall in gold reserves, which dropped $13.49 billion to $117.19 billion during the reported week.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
The United States has encouraged India to purchase Russian oil already at sea to mitigate supply shortages and price increases amid the West Asia conflict, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. This move is described as a short-term effort to stabilise the market without altering Washington's policy towards Russia.
Uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict has significantly impacted India's mutual fund industry, leading to a sharp decline in new fund offers (NFOs) in March, despite numerous regulatory approvals. This geopolitical tension, coupled with existing market strain and distributor hesitation, has dampened investor sentiment and affected overall inflows.
India is back on the diplomatic table pushing oil producing countries to raise production in a bid to cool down runaway oil prices. Brent crude oil prices traded above $90 a barrel, on Thursday, for the first time since 2014. Brent is the most popular marker for crude oil trade. It is used as a benchmark for two-thirds of the world's internationally traded crude oil.
India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, spent 2.5 billion euro on buying crude oil from Russia in September, 14 per cent less than the previous month, a European think tank said. India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in September behind China, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
The Indian government has waived customs duty on critical petrochemical products until June 30 to ensure supply stability and provide relief to consumers amid disruptions caused by the crisis in West Asia.
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